Theresa’s Chat Magazine – Solar Energy, Small Caps, Teledoc, and Aemetis

By Theresa May (Chat Moderator & Analyst)

Each week we publish a summary of a few of the articles, topics and ideas found in the MoSI chat. We encourage you to visit chat to read about updates to our investments, share ideas and ask questions. See you in chat (aka investment group feeds). 

Summary

  • We talked about investing in solar energy using both single stocks and an ETF.
  • We looked at the divergence between small-cap and equal-weighted S&P performance.
  • We opined about Teledoc’s (TDOC) future.
  • We highlighted Aemetis’ (AMTX) financial improvements and potential for future growth.

A conversation about strategies for investing in solar energy.

Shepferg2 Nov 7

I just set a small first nibble order for Enphse (ENPH) at $73. Anyone think that’s a bad move?

Brian Steege 1964 Nov 7

I have ENPH because of the long term. Great tech.

But Seriously Nov 7

Recently opened small position in ENPH. Good long-term prospects but I expect it to go still lower in short term.

Theresa May Nov 8

I woke up this morning thinking about this ENPH monthly chart. I really like where price trades right now. RSI on the monthly hasn’t confirmed yet, so I’m going to sit on my hands for a bit longer. But I thought I’d post where I see strong monthly demand for ENPH stock.

I really like Kirk’s idea of buying (TAN). That whole industry has been beaten to a bloody pulp. He’s right, why take single stock risk?

Kirk Spano Nov 8

Adding TAN as it bottoms, I think this month, to individual solar stocks is a great pairing. I’ll add QCLN too when Tesla (TSLA) bottoms.

Divergence between small caps and the equal-weighted S&P

Les Rob Nov 7

IWM vs. RSP. Small-cap and equal-weight S&P performance has been virtually identical this year.

Kirk Spano Nov 7

So, that screams divergence coming. What do folks think. Will equal weight big stocks do better in a more liquid environment, or will high growth small stocks do better in a more liquid environment? Did I make that leading? Only a little, I think.

What’s up Doc? TDOC!

hamiltonian Nov 7

TDOC- from an interview with a resident physician in emergency medicine: Q – What is their future, and what do you think happens to them in five years from now? A – [They should] “be thinking very carefully about [they] continue to collect, store, analyze and share the data…” “I think there’s a lot of hype around AI and LLMs and all of that. That’s not even what we are talking about! We’re talking about very simple stuff…”

Kirk Spano Nov 8

as for Teledoc (TDOC), the answer is yes, they are positioned very well. They are getting info from docs and patients. It’ll all evolve. I think they’ll be bought sooner than later at these price levels, but, make no doubt about it, data which include patient histories and DNA info is running head on into AI which will become the best PAs in history.

Thoughts about Aemetis (AMTX) and the earnings they reported this past week.

Kirk Spano Nov 9

The company posted blowout cash flow, improved its debt position dramatically and has revenues from operations contracted in India, more RNG and more efficient ethanol, set to post blowout numbers in 2024. Plus, more ITC in H1 and H2, as well as, production tax credits. Money managers will push this into Russell 2000 in 2024, IWM forced buying will push to around all-time highs and finally retail FOMO will push it higher. It’s easy money, but requires patience, to a $2-3 billion market cap exclusive of SAF and carbon capture. Higher on both of those things. We’re entering year 3 of a 5 year ramp.

Aemetis converted preferred into debt, interest rate fell from 24% to 16% and they paid down $55 million of the debt. I’ll confirm from 10Q, but that’s how it sounds & reads to me. That’s a massive improvement in financial condition.

See section 12 of 10Q for summary of key financials. As I stated previously, from the $55m ITC, $30m paid down Preferred A and rest paid down other Third Eye debt. The Preferred A balance is reduced to $102.5m. Per 4th amendment of Preferred A, Schedule A credit agreement, ABGL (RNG subsidiary) will enter a credit agreement with Third Eye to extinguish the Preferred A for $108m of debt for greater of 16% or prime + 10%. Third Eye gets 100% of free cash flow from ABGL. Based on ITC we just saw, this debt could be paid off as quickly as 1 year.

Think about how fast AMTX is now paying down debt. Revenues and tax credits heading up. USDA loans for 20 years at low rates expanding ABGL biogas biz. By 2025 AMTX has massive excess free cash. And, India will have some securitized monetization event on top of larger revenues.

I would just like to point out this chart I did a while back for you at this precise moment in time…

Articles of interest posted to the chat this past week

Bloomberg The price of money is going up and its not only because of the Fed

What AI means for travel-now and in the future

Bloomberg The Tipping Point, from tight to…What, Exactly?https://seekingalpha.com/embed/25095

BlackRock Puts $550MM into Direct Air Capture JV with Occidental

Palantir to be named as winner of Federated Data Platform

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2022 Forecast Review & Update

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